浮力资本 Buoyancy Capital
History & Key Events

How Macro Shocks Reshape Allocation

Review the pivotal FX and macro milestones to grasp how policy, speculation, and capital flows interact—so you are prepared before the next crisis hits.

Events from 1971-2008
FX Regime Evolution
Crises & Opportunities

1971

Nixon Shock and the end of Bretton Woods

Macro Regime Shift

The US suspended dollar-to-gold convertibility, forcing peers into free or managed floats. Capital controls and administered rates gradually disappeared, giving birth to the modern FX market.

Implications for Traders & Allocators

  • Central banks relied on policy rates and interventions to stabilize currencies, putting monetary policy at the center of FX moves.
  • Financial institutions ramped up derivatives trading to manage exposures, expanding the offshore dollar market.
  • The US Dollar Index emerged as the benchmark for global liquidity, while commodities and safe havens became more sensitive to USD swings.

1992

Black Wednesday: Speculators vs. ERM

Macro Regime Shift

Post-ERM entry, the pound had to stay within a tight band to the deutsche mark. A weak economy, high rates, and speculative pressure from funds like Soros’s Quantum forced the UK to abandon the peg.

Implications for Traders & Allocators

  • Highlighted the incompatibility of fixed FX and independent monetary policy, accelerating Europe’s path toward monetary union.
  • Demonstrated that leveraged macro funds using derivatives could overwhelm sovereign defenses, boosting trend-following strategies.
  • After devaluation the UK rebounded quickly, offering a success story for floating regimes.

1997

Asian Financial Crisis: Contagion across EM FX

Macro Regime Shift

Speculative attacks forced Thailand to abandon its USD peg, triggering cascading devaluations in Indonesia, Korea, and others where short-term USD debt dwarfed reserves.

Implications for Traders & Allocators

  • Showcased the risks of mismatched external debt, prompting Asian economies to hoard reserves as self-insurance.
  • Sparked coordinated responses by the IMF and global central banks, with aid tied to structural reforms.
  • Pushed many EM currencies toward flexible regimes and accelerated demand for FX hedging tools.

2008

Global Financial Crisis: Flight-to-Quality Supercycle

Macro Regime Shift

The US housing bust shattered interbank trust. USD funding evaporated, VIX spiked, and investors rushed into dollars, yen, and Treasuries while dumping risky assets, igniting a global deleveraging loop.

Implications for Traders & Allocators

  • Solidified USD and top sovereign bonds as ultimate safe havens, making dollar liquidity the lifeblood for all assets.
  • G20 coordination ushered in QE and fiscal stimulus, starting an ultra-easy era that reshaped asset prices and inflation expectations.
  • Risk indicators like the TED spread, LIBOR-OIS, and VIX became central to trading desks, embedding risk management into every strategy.

Return or Keep Exploring

History doesn’t repeat, but it leaves rhymes. Combine market landscape and macro history to build a resilient trading framework.

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