Build Your Macro Trading Radar

Track policy rates and swap curves to gauge funding costs and carry appeal. When spreads widen in favor of one economy, capital seeks the higher yield, lifting that currency—and vice versa.

• Forward guidance and dot plots shift expectations for rate differentials, sparking currency trends.
• Swap points and yield-curve slopes reveal funding costs, guiding carry or anti-carry setups.
• Balance-sheet expansion (QE) suppresses long rates and boosts risk assets, while tightening does the opposite.

Economic data drives both growth assessment and expectation gaps. Persistent inflation forces tighter policy, weighing on risk assets; a sudden data miss prompts easing bets that lift currencies and risk.

• Core CPI/PCE and wage growth gauge inflation persistence and dictate the pace of tightening.
• Expectations from breakeven inflation or inflation swaps often foreshadow volatility when they decouple from realized data.
• Supply shocks in energy/food trigger short-term inflation spikes, moving commodity currencies and trade-dependent economies.

When risk appetite wanes, capital flees high-yield assets for USD, JPY, CHF, gold, and Treasuries; when it improves, flows reverse into equities, commodities, and high-beta FX. Geopolitics and credit shocks often catalyze the swing.

• VIX, MOVE, and FX vol indices quantify risk sentiment; spikes send flows into USD, JPY, CHF, and gold.
• Geopolitical shocks (wars, sanctions, regime changes) hit energy and defense first, then spill into FX via trade and capital.
• Social media tone, option skews, and fund-flow reports flag turning points in risk-on/off positioning.